Against simulation theories

hypericin June 22, 2022 at 03:13 6925 views 58 comments
This is an attack on all theories in the vein of the recently fashionable "The universe is a simulation": including, brain-in-a-vat, solipsism (my mind is simulating the universe), some theisms (the universe is simulated by God's mind), maybe some idealisms. They all share the same flaw.

In computer science it is known that it takes more computational power to simulate a computer system than the computer system itself has; typically, much more. I think this principle can be generalized:

For any system S, any complete simulation of S, S', must be more more complex than S

If this is true, then we can throw out all the simulation theories. For any model M explaining a phenomenon, we can trivially say, "Aha, but wait! What if only appears that M is true, when really it's being simulated, S(M) is true?" Since S(M) never possesses any explanatory power above M, and yet S(M) is always more complex than M, S(M) can always be discarded via Occam's Razor.

Comments (58)

Agent Smith June 22, 2022 at 05:24 #710947
My brain tells me this:

1. Real (1 entity)

2. Real + Simulation (2 entities)

Which is simpler?

The novacula Occami: Do not multiply entities without necessity.

Does the world as real suffice as an explanatory framework
for all phenomena or is there something that's inexplicable about what we see around us which necessitates the simulation hypothesis?

As for solipsism, it is simpler - only one person viz. yourself hasta be real instead of 6,999,999,999 others..

A tension now builds - I don't know how to defuse it.

[quote=Ranjeet]A thousand apologies.[/quote]
Jackson June 22, 2022 at 05:35 #710953
Quoting hypericin
This is an attack on all theories in the vein of the recently fashionable "The universe is a simulation":


I do not think the universe is a simulation. But I do think it is a kind of computing system.
punos June 22, 2022 at 07:11 #711001
Quoting hypericin
In computer science it is known that it takes more computational power to simulate a computer system than the computer system itself has; typically, much more. I think this principle can be generalized:

For any system S, any complete simulation of S, S', must be more more complex than S


I think this is true if one assumes that the simulation is of the exact quality and complexity of the universe the computer making the simulation belongs to. I don't think it's so if the computer is aiming to simulate a simpler type of universe than the universe the computer is in.

I would assume entities in the simulation would not be able to tell any difference within their own simulated reality, and they wouldn't be able to compare their computed reality with the computing reality. If these simulated entities decided to create their own simulated reality, it would have to be even simpler than theirs too.

One way i think the computing limitations can be overcome is by simply extending the time the computer needs to calculate the next time step. For the entities in that simulation time would feel as if it were running normally. Since each simulated entity is computed together with the rest of the simulation, they experience things in time with the simulation. Meaning that from one time step to the next, no matter how long it takes to calculate that time step, the entities would perceive it as instantaneous. The speed of "light" in their universe would probably need to be slower than in the computing universe to compensate for the difference in computing speed, but it wouldn't feel any different to them. This is all mostly speculation of course.
hypericin June 22, 2022 at 07:23 #711006
Quoting punos
I think this is true if one assumes that the simulation is of the exact quality and complexity of the universe the computer making the simulation belongs to.


You seem to be answering the argument, "How can a computer be so powerful as to simulate the whole universe, when the computer is a part of the universe?" I am not making that argument.
hypericin June 22, 2022 at 07:28 #711007
Quoting Agent Smith
As for solipsism, it is simpler


Solipsism implies a vastly more powerful brain than what you believe you have, as 99.9999999999.... % of it is unconscious: the part that remembers everything, so that everything is consistent, every time you check it, the part that simulates every physical phenomenon to perfect exactitude, the part that knows the entirety of every science and art, etc. etc. etc.

Where does this brain live? In this universe, or are we supposing a new one? How does it operate? Are you a dreaming god? Then what is the physics of the waking universe?
Agent Smith June 22, 2022 at 07:31 #711010
@hypericin

Possible, quite possible. Many philosophical ideas are the kind that philosophers haven't really explored in earnest - the mere possibility of some scenario makes philosophers all soooo excited. I'm not saying this is bad, but à la an old forum member, it ain't good either.
punos June 22, 2022 at 07:38 #711012
Reply to hypericin
Well yes, but like i said, only if it's trying to simulate it's own universe at the exact resolution of it's own universe.
punos June 22, 2022 at 07:48 #711015
Reply to hypericin

Quoting Agent Smith
As for solipsism


When we sleep and we dream, isn't the mind creating a simulation of a universe? We even take it as actual reality, except if you are lucid dreaming. This also applies to the idea of solipsism, where the entire dream is one persons mind, but with seemingly independent characters populating it. How do we know that this reality is not of the same nature as a dream reality? Maybe the nature of any and every reality is of the nature of dreams. Again... speculation speculation.

Agent Smith June 22, 2022 at 07:53 #711018
Reply to punos Doubting Thomas!
punos June 22, 2022 at 08:05 #711023
Quoting Agent Smith
Doubting Thomas!


Doubting Thomas was the only disciple to ever touch the resurrected body of Christ. His doubt earned him that privilege.
Benkei June 22, 2022 at 10:10 #711036
Reply to hypericin Does your OP assume that the simulation has to simulate everything? Can't it just simulate parts of it, making it seem as if the whole thing is simulated? In other words, the simulation only needs to simulate "appearances" not the thing-in-itself.
hypericin June 22, 2022 at 10:41 #711039
Reply to Benkei Yup! I didn't say anything, but I think this is the fatal flaw in my argument. You only have to simulate enough to fool the sentient beings, and our brains really aren't that powerful, so you might wind up with large savings in complexity.

True, you have to account for whatever universe the simulator lives in. But this might be much smaller, and less complex, than the universe the simulator portrays.

So then, by the logic of the op, how do we avoid the absurd conclusion of always preferring the simulation theory?
noAxioms June 22, 2022 at 16:29 #711125
Quoting hypericin
For any system S, any complete simulation of S, S', must be more more complex than S

Agree, but a virtual reality (BIV) only needs to provide one artificial feed of experience to the experiencer in the vat, so to speak. It doesn't require an inordinate amount of resources. I'm not suggesting I support such a view, but the complexity argument doesn't seem to shoot this one down directly.

Most of the Brain-in-Vat theorists presume that the experiencer is somehow still a brain (a pink wet gloppy thing with some wires). There is zero evidence of that. There is zero evidence of anything for that matter if the experience it is being fed is all lies.

You seem to be answering the argument, "How can a computer be so powerful as to simulate the whole universe, when the computer is a part of the universe?" I am not making that argument.

This is apparently about an actual simulation (as opposed to a VR premise), and it presumes that the simulation is being performed by a universe with the same rules as the one being simulated. There's no reason to assume that since there's no evidence for it.

I mean, our physics can be simulated at best down to the classical level, not the quantum level. To do that, you need something with more capability, with completely different rules.

Quoting hypericin
You only have to simulate enough to fool the sentient beings
How would a physics simulation know when a particular state of simulated material qualifies as a sentient being requiring being fooled? It means the physics must change depending on what is measuring it.

hypericin June 23, 2022 at 15:41 #711627
Quoting noAxioms
It doesn't require an inordinate amount of resources.


It's an interesting thought experiment to consider the complexity required to simulate one person's experience with perfect fidelity and consistency, vs the complexity of the whole planet. In a traditional computer simulation, computational power increases exponentially with increasing fidelity, a perfect holodeck style simulation will never be achieved (famous last words, but...)

Quoting noAxioms
I mean, our physics can be simulated at best down to the classical level, not the quantum level. To do that, you need something with more capability, with completely different rules.


But still the simulation theory presumes all the complexity of the actual would, the simulation of it, and the universe with different rules hosting that simulation. Whatever that universe's laws, the simulation theory presumes far more complexity than the non-simulation theory.

Quoting noAxioms
How would a physics simulation know when a particular state of simulated material qualifies as a sentient being requiring being fooled?


I was assuming that the "subjects" are the only sentient ones, and that simulated entities are all p-zombies. It gets quite a bit trickier if these agents develop sentience on their own!

Benkei June 23, 2022 at 17:28 #711650
Reply to hypericin Reply to noAxioms Putnam's BIVs are about meaning and not a suggestion about how a simulation would look like or even suggestive of that as a possibility. I think the question "are we living in a simulation?" is moot. If we live in a simulation our reality is simulated and our ideas about things refer to simulated things. Doesn't make our experiences any less real though. And since there's no "really real" to meaningfully talk about (all we have is concepts of simulated things), then the existence of the really real is irrelevant and so is the nature of our reality. It's all we know and can know.
Bylaw June 24, 2022 at 21:06 #711976
Quoting hypericin
Solipsism implies a vastly more powerful brain than what you believe you have, as 99.9999999999.... % of it is unconscious: the part that remembers everything, so that everything is consistent, every time you check it, the part that simulates every physical phenomenon to perfect exactitude, the part that knows the entirety of every science and art, etc. etc. etc.
Or it just seems consistant. There's a built in, this is correctly connected to the past quale. That shouldn't require something more powerful than our unconscious, just something different. Also the OR is about how many entities are posited.

T Clark June 24, 2022 at 21:40 #711984
Quoting hypericin
In computer science it is known that it takes more computational power to simulate a computer system than the computer system itself has; typically, much more.


Is this true? Do you have a source for that statement? Seems to me if I could create a perfect copy of the universe, it would be a complete analog simulation of the original and would be no more complex.
hypericin June 24, 2022 at 23:43 #712005
Reply to Clarky that would be no more a simulation of the universe than an iPhone is a simulation of an iPhone
T Clark June 25, 2022 at 03:17 #712044
Quoting hypericin
that would be no more a simulation of the universe than an iPhone is a simulation of an iPhone


Quoting TWI
A simulation imitates the operation of real world processes or systems with the use of models. The model represents the key behaviours and characteristics of the selected process or system while the simulation represents how the model evolves under different conditions over time.


You can't get any better model of something than an artificial copy of it.
Harry Hindu June 25, 2022 at 16:49 #712193
Quoting hypericin
In computer science it is known that it takes more computational power to simulate a computer system than the computer system itself has; typically, much more. I think this principle can be generalized:

This isn't exactly true or useful. While it does take more power to emulate a system, you can fully emulate an older system on a more powerful system. Just look at MAME the Multiple Arcade Machine Emulator that emulates vintage arcade machines and vintage home computers and consoles.

Emulating the the system that you are currently using on the same system is pointless.
hypericin June 26, 2022 at 20:07 #712699
Quoting Harry Hindu
While it does take more power to emulate a system, you can fully emulate an older system on a more powerful system. Just look at MAME the Multiple Arcade Machine Emulator


I'm quite familiar. Exactly how does this contradict what I said?
hypericin June 26, 2022 at 20:11 #712702
Quoting T Clark
You can't get any better model of something than an artificial copy of it.


The quote referring to abstract simulations. They abstract relevant features into a model, and simulate the model. I'm referring to complete simulation, also called emulation. If you have two identical things, one is not emulating the other. Simulation/emulation refer to something else: one system arranged to duplicate the behavior of another.
Harry Hindu June 27, 2022 at 12:27 #712980
Quoting hypericin
Exactly how does this contradict what I said?

As I pointed out, all you need is a more powerful information processing system to simulate another system that has less information. Your argument is invalid because you dont know if our universe contains all possible information. You just dont know how much information actually exists. Our universe could be a fraction of the total information so a larger system could actually be simulating our universe.
Harry Hindu June 27, 2022 at 12:46 #712986
Quoting Agent Smith
My brain tells me this:

1. Real (1 entity)

2. Real + Simulation (2 entities)

Invalid if we think of the simulation as part of reality. All simulations exist within one reality. Simulating an old gaming console on your modern computer is real example of a simulation within reality. Both the simulator and the simulation are only a fraction of reality. The problem is that we just don't know how big reality is, or how much information exists.
Agent Smith June 27, 2022 at 13:34 #712997
Quoting Harry Hindu
Invalid if we think of the simulation as part of reality. All simulations exist within one reality. Simulating an old gaming console on your modern computer is real example of a simulation within reality. Both the simulator and the simulation are only a fraction of reality. The problem is that we just don't know how big reality is, or how much information exists.


I humbly disagree.

A simulation’s an additional entity over and above reality.
Harry Hindu June 27, 2022 at 13:55 #713006
Quoting Agent Smith
A simulation’s an additional entity over and above reality.

No. It's not. A simulation exists within reality as it is composed of real things. You need a real computer to create a simulated one.

I have no idea what "over and above reality" means anyway. Reality is all there is. There can be no "over and above" reality.
Agent Smith June 28, 2022 at 01:17 #713177
Reply to Harry Hindu

There is reality and then there is the simulation. I count two "entities"; how many do you see?

It's true that the simulation is part of reality, within it to be precise. However, the simulation is a world unto itself and so must be treated as equals with the world it is within.
Harry Hindu June 28, 2022 at 03:05 #713207
Quoting Agent Smith
It's true that the simulation is part of reality, within it to be precise. However, the simulation is a world unto itself and so must be treated as equals with the world it is within.

:roll:
Agent Smith June 28, 2022 at 03:17 #713214
Reply to Harry Hindu

Let's discuss the point further. You say that a simulation is part of (some) real world. I concur.

However, this hypothesis entails the existence of 2 worlds: the real + the simulation (within that world). Compare that to the belief that this which we experience is real (only 1 world). How would William of Occam tackle this?
Harry Hindu June 28, 2022 at 14:40 #713407
Quoting Agent Smith
How would William of Occam tackle this?

By understanding that if a simulation is a world it is no longer a simulation. A simulation only makes sense in light of a world.

Is a map of the territory another "territory"? Just because the map does not represent itself on the map even though it is part of the territory does not mean that it is above and beyond the territory. It just means that it would be useless to do so.
Count Timothy von Icarus June 28, 2022 at 15:08 #713410
Reply to hypericin

I don't see how this applies to most forms of idealism I am familiar with.

In terms of the multiplication of entities, I think you are mostly right. However, the argument generally goes that:

1. If the universe turns out to be fully broken down into discrete chunks (quanta), including discrete amounts of space and time, we have an issue. We have an issue because mathematics tells us we should be able to have continuous things, but instead we only have discrete things. Why would this be?

2. If the universe is a finite collection of discrete bits, then in theory you could simulate it. S(M) without infinite subdivisions of space and time could be simulated without an infinite amount of computation.

3. Simulation theory attempts to answer questions about the world that appear in physics to be brute facts. Why is there a limit on how fast objects can go? Why are objects not infinitely divisible? Why do we have a universe seemingly made up of small pixels, to use an analogy? Multiplying entities should be avoided, but in this case the multiplication is being invoked to answer a question that isn't currently answered. In this case, Ockham's Razor isn't being violated. Ockham's Razor does not entail that labeling everything as brute fact avoids multiplying entities. Indeed, each brute fact is its own ontological entity, and so simulation theory attempts to scoop up a bunch of these ontological primitives and explain them with one mechanism. A better critique might be that the claim is unfalsifiable and doesn't make any new predictions, but this is actually true of the entire field of quantum foundations so I'm not sure if it is fair to single out the simulation folks.

4. Not directly related, but S(M) might only have to model the experienced of all humans (maybe not even all of them, some could be "NPCs"). Since the amount of data in consciousness is vastly smaller than the amount in "actual" space-time, the size of the simulation might be able to be vastly, orders of magnitude, more simple than we think it is. The Matrix AI only has to render what we're looking at. And indeed, simulation theorists use the fact that many phenomena don't have values until we look at them as potential evidence of the simulation hypothesis.

Outlander June 28, 2022 at 15:11 #713411
Quoting hypericin
In computer science it is known that it takes more computational power to simulate a computer system than the computer system itself has; typically, much more.


Is this kind of like how computers used to be the size of a wall and now we wear them on our wrists?

Also,
You can't create a simulation on an average computer where the electricity works differently than it does in real life? Of course you can- it's a simulation!

For the record I do not believe reality is a simulation. More of a 'spiritual realms' guy myself. Now many people, for all intents and purposes, actually do live in man-made simulations, often of their own design- but that's another matter.
Count Timothy von Icarus June 28, 2022 at 15:29 #713421
Or to make my point much simpler, the "brute facts of physics," the speed of light, the relative strengths and values of the fundemental forces, etc. are all irreducible ontological entities (maybe, some might be unified in the future).

Simulation theory is attempting to reduce these brute facts to a single cause, so they are swapping a great deal of entities for just one. Thier case might be the more parsimonious actually, but the problem remains, why should we believe this?

As for a simulation taking more information, that's aside the point for Ockham's. We're concerned about multiplying types of primitive things that can't be reduced not with there being a greater quantity of things.

This is why scientists want to unify the fundemental forces, as they have with electromagnetism and the weak force, because it means fewer entities, even if the amount of information stays the same.
Agent Smith June 28, 2022 at 15:34 #713422
Quoting Harry Hindu
By understanding that if a simulation is a world it is no longer a simulation. A simulation only makes sense in light of a world.

Is a map of the territory another "territory"? Just because the map does not represent itself on the map even though it is part of the territory does not mean that it is above and beyond the territory. It just means that it would be useless to do so.


Let's look at this from a human perspective. The possibilities are:

1. We're in a simulation, meaning there's the real world + the simulation we're a part of.

2. We're in the real world. This isn't a simulation.

Your point is that the simulation is part of the real world, whichever world that is, and that implies that I'm wrong (about the simulation hypothesis being a perfect Harry client for the novacula Occami :snicker: ).

Let's do the math.

From the simulator's point if view: Real world + The Simulation it creates = Real World (no issues).

From the simulated's point of view: The Simulation it's part of + The real world of the simulator > The Simulation it's part of.


Michael June 28, 2022 at 16:06 #713423
Quoting hypericin
and yet S(M) is always more complex than M, S(M) can always be discarded via Occam's Razor.


You should check out Boltzmann brains, because according to that M is much more complex than S(M):

The Boltzmann brain thought experiment suggests that it might be more likely for a single brain to spontaneously form in a void (complete with a memory of having existed in our universe) rather than for the entire universe to come about in the manner cosmologists think it actually did.

...

In Boltzmann brain scenarios, the ratio of Boltzmann brains to "normal observers" is astronomically large. Almost any relevant subset of Boltzmann brains, such as "brains embedded within functioning bodies", "observers who believe they are perceiving 3 K microwave background radiation through telescopes", "observers who have a memory of coherent experiences", or "observers who have the same series of experiences as me", also vastly outnumber "normal observers". Therefore, under most models of consciousness, it is unclear that one can reliably conclude that oneself is not such a "Boltzmann observer", in a case where Boltzmann brains dominate the Universe. Even under "content externalism" models of consciousness, Boltzmann observers living in a consistent Earth-sized fluctuation over the course of the past several years outnumber the "normal observers" spawned before a Universe's "heat death".

As stated earlier, most Boltzmann brains have "abnormal" experiences; Feynman has pointed out that, if one knows oneself to be a typical Boltzmann brain, one does not expect "normal" observations to continue in the future. In other words, in a Boltzmann-dominated Universe, most Boltzmann brains have "abnormal" experiences, but most observers with only "normal" experiences are Boltzmann brains, due to the overwhelming vastness of the population of Boltzmann brains in such a Universe.
Michael June 28, 2022 at 16:20 #713426
Quoting Harry Hindu
Is a map of the territory another "territory"?


It can be, e.g:

User image
Count Timothy von Icarus June 28, 2022 at 16:44 #713431
Reply to Michael

There is a Borges story, "On Exactitude in Science," about map makers who were so accurate that they would make 1:1 scale maps the same size of the territories they were mapping. Not only this, but they would carry forward enough detail that the two became indistinguishable.

Similarly, with "Funes the Memorious" there is a character whose memory is exact. He can relive entire days, but it takes him 24 hours to do so. He rejects objects. For example, referring to Carlos's dog is ridiculous, you should refer to Carlos's dog on January 19th at 8:32 AM, as that dog is totally different from the one on February 11th at 6:01 PM.

I thought they were clever little ways to poke fun at the way some metaphysics seems pretty arbitrary, grounded in human capabilities and nothing more.

Harry Hindu June 29, 2022 at 15:06 #713801
Quoting Michael
Is a map of the territory another "territory"?
— Harry Hindu

It can be, e.g:


That's pretty cool. I can't imagine the the time that went into making that.

My point was that even the map is part of the territory depending on how much territory we're talking about. For instance, that map is part of the territory of the Earth that is taken to represent another part territory of the Earth, just on a smaller scale and with less detail. For instance the map you posted does not include the people of that territory. It can only represent so much being on a smaller scale than what it is representing. What parts of the real territory it represents and what parts it doesn't depends on the map-maker's intentions and goals.

Now that I think about it, a map can include itself on the map. When hiking nature trails, you will find a sign post that contains a map of the surrounding territory with a mark on the map labeled, "You are Here". It's not really where you are, it's where the map is because you move along on the trail but the map and it's mark of where "you" are doesn't move. So the mark is really where the map is, not where you are.



Harry Hindu June 29, 2022 at 15:19 #713807
Quoting Agent Smith
Let's look at this from a human perspective. The possibilities are:

1. We're in a simulation, meaning there's the real world + the simulation we're a part of.

2. We're in the real world. This isn't a simulation.

Your point is that the simulation is part of the real world, whichever world that is, and that implies that I'm wrong (about the simulation hypothesis being a perfect Harry client for the novacula Occami :snicker: ).

Let's do the math.

From the simulator's point if view: Real world + The Simulation it creates = Real World (no issues).

From the simulated's point of view: The Simulation it's part of + The real world of the simulator > The Simulation it's part of.


I don't understand your point.

It's really simple. A simulation is part of reality in the same way that the Earth is part of reality and the same way the Andromeda galaxy is part of reality and the same way our universe is part of the multiverse (reality). It's not a mathematical relation. It's a spatial relation.

Even heaven and hell (if they were to exist) are part of reality with reality being the entirety of all causal relations. The events in our universe would have a causal relation with the events in heaven and hell with your actions here in this world determining whether you go to heaven or hell, and God - being in heaven - creating the universe. Heaven, hell and our universe would not be separate "realities". They are all part of one reality because they all interact with each other (Occam's Razor) and any boundaries between them would be arbitrary constructions of our mind.
Jackson June 29, 2022 at 15:24 #713808
Quoting Harry Hindu
I don't understand your point.


Not surprised.
Agent Smith June 29, 2022 at 16:08 #713825
Reply to Harry Hindu You have a point monsieur - the simulation is part of the real world; you said the same thing about the notion of unnatural many suns ago if you recall.

The difference between unnatural and simulation is that yhe latter is a world and so deserves, how shall I put it?, equal respect as the real deal.
Harry Hindu June 29, 2022 at 16:29 #713831
Quoting Agent Smith
You have a point monsieur - the simulation is part of the real world; you said the same thing about the notion of unnatural many suns ago if you recall.

What I said about the distinction between natural and unnatural (artificial) has nothing to do with the distinction between reality and simulation.

Quoting Agent Smith
The difference between unnatural and simulation is that yhe latter is a world and so deserves, how shall I put it?, equal respect as the real deal.

So you think that simulated people deserve the same rights as real people?
Agent Smith June 29, 2022 at 17:17 #713840
Quoting Harry Hindu
What I said about the distinction between natural and unnatural (artificial) has nothing to do with the distinction between reality and simulation.


That's an odd statement to make.

Quoting Harry Hindu
So you think that simulated people deserve the same rights as real people?


We could be simulations, in fact that's what follows if you think my argument based on the novacula Occami is flawed and you do. Do we deserve the same rights as our creator(s)?
Harry Hindu June 30, 2022 at 19:16 #714176
Quoting Agent Smith
We could be simulations, in fact that's what follows if you think my argument based on the novacula Occami is flawed and you do. Do we deserve the same rights as our creator(s)?

No, we wouldn't. But I doubt we're simulations. Why would the creators create simulations that create simulations? What would be the point?
Agent Smith July 01, 2022 at 01:52 #714291
Quoting Harry Hindu
No, we wouldn't. But I doubt we're simulations. Why would the creators create simulations that create simulations? What would be the point?


I see. I'm sorry if you feel that way about the rights of simulated beings knowing full well that we ourselves could be them.

There are n number of reasons why someone capable of creating a simulation would do so - from play to research, and everything in betweeen.
hypericin July 01, 2022 at 03:18 #714320
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Thier case might be the more parsimonious actually,


Not at all. It is only a superficial parsimony, as you subtracting some constants, while adding a whole additional universe. It is like theism, "because god wills it" is only superficially parsimonious, when in reality it adds a whole new class of entity to the universe that makes laws, rather than follows them. How does that work? Is there a whole new set of laws that govern god's behavior?

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
We have an issue because mathematics tells us we should be able to have continuous things, but instead we only have discrete things


Mathematics doesn't "tell us" this. Just because reality sometimes follows structures predicted in math doesn't mean that the existence of a mathematical construct is any kind of argument for it's instantiation in reality.
hypericin July 01, 2022 at 06:54 #714395
Reply to Michael Help me understand, why should a brain spontaneously materializing be more likely than one evolving naturally?
Michael July 01, 2022 at 08:10 #714407
Quoting hypericin
Help me understand, why should a brain spontaneously materializing be more likely than one evolving naturally?


This is what the Wikipedia article says:

The Boltzmann brain thought experiment suggests that it might be more likely for a single brain to spontaneously form in a void (complete with a memory of having existed in our universe) rather than for the entire universe to come about in the manner cosmologists think it actually did.


A brain evolving naturally requires a much larger ecosystem (a Star, a habitable planet, millions of years of reproduction and natural selection, etc., all of which have prior requirements of their own). That is far more complex than just a brain forming in a void.
Count Timothy von Icarus July 01, 2022 at 12:47 #714439
Quoting hypericin
Mathematics doesn't "tell us" this. Just because reality sometimes follows structures predicted in math doesn't mean that the existence of a mathematical construct is any kind of argument for it's instantiation in reality.


Well that of course depends on your attitudes towards mathematical Platonism and the Quine-Putnam Indispensability Argument. Is math something we discovered, or something we invented? If math is the study of patterns, and most of the patterns we started with (e.g. Euclid's descriptions of 2D space) are continuous, what's up with that? How does our limited cognitive power offer up a finer grained (indeed, infinitely finer grained) reality than that which seems apparent?

That is, anyhow, the rationale within which simulation theorists tend to put forth conclusions. I don't find it terribly convincing, for one because space-time seems like an entity ready to get torn up and replaced; it's in the sort of rough shape that Newtonian space was in the late 19th century. So, I honestly think we have no idea what we'll find in terms of things matching up with mathematics at a basic level.

Second, I think you're right that lurking behind any simulation is a another set of metaphysical questions about the nature of the simulator.

Some "simulationesque" formulations don't have this problem. The "Holographic Universe," doesn't propose God-like alien simulators, but rather follows the natural conclusion of the observation that the information content of a thing is determined by its 2D surface area and that information only exchanges across 2D surfaces. In this related argument, 3D space and time are illusory, a sort of hologram created by 2D information theoretic structures.

The other simulation-like model is the idea that our brains essentially hallucinate/simulate a reality. The information content our bodies are exposed to is orders of magnitude greater than the information our sensory organs take in (this has to be the case or we'd succumb to entropy). The actual data our sensory organs take in is orders of magnitude greater than what makes it to consciousness. Each step along the way from incoming sense data to consciousness involves massive amounts of data compression, as well as computation to shape the data into something useful. The systems we inherit aren't selected for on the basis of how well they actually represent reality, but only how well they allow genes or other informational units to replicate. Donald Hoffman's "The Case Against Reality," has a good summation of this set of ideas.

In that sense, the world around us is a simulation. 3D space-time might actually be an error compressing code that evolution hit upon, an effective means of encoding fitness information, rather than the structure of reality.

These similar types of arguments I find more plausible, even if they make metaphysics more difficult. The long history of arguments over objects, their related universals or tropes, if they posses a pure substratum of haecceity, etc. might all be simply an artifact of how our cognition is optimized to sort out patterns and define things as discrete "objects."

That all said, I still don't think the size of said simulation works against simulation theories. Reason being that a simulator would only need to simulate the areas you're currently looking at, not the entire universe. It could be analogous to video games, which render the world around them based on the players' line of sight.
hypericin July 01, 2022 at 22:06 #714582
Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Is math something we discovered, or something we invented?


But this is a different question than whether the math is instantiated in the world. For instance, I believe the Mandelbrot set was discovered: after all, it has an endless capacity to surprise. But it is not instantiated in the world. At best, tiny fragments are echoed in computer programs. Similarly, numbers like 10^100000000000000000000 are numbers, but we needn't believe that magnitudes of this scale exist in reality.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
How does our limited cognitive power offer up a finer grained (indeed, infinitely finer grained) reality than that which seems apparent?


It seems straightforward to me. From our perspective, reality is so fine grained it appears to be continuous. Real numbers are a mathematical abstraction of the seemingly continuous quantities that present themselves to us. Whether or not reality itself is continuous at its fundamental level is an entirely different question.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
In this related argument, 3D space and time are illusory, a sort of hologram created by 2D information theoretic structures.


3D space and time are the built in models our brains build from the 2D perceptions it receives. Does it follow that the model is wrong? It is hard to see it's survival value if so.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
3D space-time might actually be an error compressing code that evolution hit upon, an effective means of encoding fitness information, rather than the structure of reality.


This seems tangential to the original argument. This is not S(M), rather it is suggesting suggesting an alternate, unspecified M to 3D space and time.

Quoting Count Timothy von Icarus
Reason being that a simulator would only need to simulate the areas you're currently looking at, not the entire universe. It could be analogous to video games, which render the world around them based on the players' line of sight.


Even here it is not obvious to me. Simulations of the caliber of our actual waking lives are so far beyond us, we might never achieve them, even if technological progression continues uninterrupted for a million years. It may be beyond our universe's capacity to compute that much. Or beyond our intellect to create them. So already, this presupposes beings of godlike technological prowess, and a whole other unrelated real universe to house them, on top of all the apparent laws and objects in the simulated world. This is my basic intuition, that S(M) is never a good theory, in the absence of extraordinary evidence.

hypericin July 01, 2022 at 22:14 #714585
Quoting Michael
That is far more complex than just a brain forming in a void.


But I never proposed that complexity be the sole criterion for choosing a theory. That leads to absurdities like this.

Interestingly, the article cited a calculation that a Boltzmann Brain should be expected to appear once every 10^500 years. Truly an unfathomable duration, if any stock is to be placed in calculations like this. And still hard for me to believe this should happen with even that frequency. I wonder how often say a molecule of water is expected to appear.
Michael July 01, 2022 at 23:46 #714602
Quoting hypericin
But I never proposed that complexity be the sole criterion for choosing a theory.


You said: "Since S(M) never possesses any explanatory power above M, and yet S(M) is always more complex than M, S(M) can always be discarded via Occam's Razor."

Replace S(M) with common sense life and M with Boltzmann brain.
hypericin July 02, 2022 at 00:57 #714627
Quoting Michael
Replace S(M) with common sense life and M with Boltzmann brain.


But here S(M) does possess explanatory power above M. With M we wonder how this extraordinarily unlikely event happened.

That is what I was asking you earlier, I don't fully understand the thrust of the theory. Boltzmann brians are phenomenally unlikely, so why is that a viable theory?
Michael July 02, 2022 at 08:19 #714738
Quoting hypericin
But here S(M) does possess explanatory power above M. With M we wonder how this extraordinarily unlikely event happened.


The same with S(M). As the article says, "the Boltzmann brain thought experiment suggests that it might be more likely for a single brain to spontaneously form in a void (complete with a memory of having existed in our universe) rather than for the entire universe to come about in the manner cosmologists think it actually did."

So both M (Boltzmann brains) and S(M) (common sense life) are extraordinarily unlikely, but given that S(M) is less likely than M, what greater explanatory power does it have?
hypericin July 04, 2022 at 18:01 #715474
Quoting Michael
So both M (Boltzmann brains) and S(M) (common sense life) are extraordinarily unlikely, but given that S(M) is less likely than M, what greater explanatory power does it have?


I looked through it again, this is the argument I was looking for: "In a single de Sitter Universe with a cosmological constant, and starting from any finite spatial slice, the number of "normal" observers is finite and bounded by the heat death of the Universe. If the Universe lasts forever, the number of nucleated Boltzmann brains is, in most models, infinite; "

This is not a problem specific to my post, it is a problem for everything! It sounds silly, but I don't know how to counterargue without insisting on specific physics that rule it out. Assuming the above conditions, how can we be confident we are not Boltzmann brains?
Michael July 04, 2022 at 18:22 #715479
Quoting hypericin
Assuming the above conditions, how can we be confident we are not Boltzmann brains?


We can't be, that's the problem.
hypericin July 04, 2022 at 18:38 #715483
Quoting Michael
We can't be, that's the problem.

And yet, if for every passing year a god were to count one atom in the (observable) universe (there are between 10^78 and 10^82 of them), by the time it had counted all of them it wouldn't have made the slightest perceptible dent in its waiting time for a single Boltzmann brain to appear. If for every atom, it begins anew the entire yearly enumeration of every atom, still, not the slightest sliver of progress, it's waiting would have not even begun.

If,
for every atom, it starts the process of,
for every atom, it starts the process of,
for every atom, it starts the process of,
for every atom, it starts the process of,
for every atom, it starts the process of,
for every atom, it starts the process of,
counting one atom every year,

Then, great! That's progress!
It just has to do that thing about another 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 (hundred quadrillion) times, and by that time it can expect one to have appeared!

Infinity is a hell of a thing.
hypericin July 05, 2022 at 21:41 #715863
Quoting hypericin
It just has to do that thing about another 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 (hundred quadrillion) times, and by that time it can expect one to have appeared!


Oh dear, I misread. Boltzmann brains are not expected to appear every 10^500 years. Nope, that's not even scratching the surface of scratching the surface. They are expected to appear every 10^10^50 years, which is quite another matter.

Our poor god hasn't even begun, after all. I don't even know how to do this one. It is a quantity of time that is not just beyond conception, it is beyond description at all.