Epistemology of UFOs
So UFO aficionados are basically fringe theorists that claim that Earth has been visited by non-human intelligent beings for years/decades/centuries/millennia. You turn on some channels, they have things like "Ancient Aliens"- claims they helped build the pyramids, or perhaps visited the Mayans, Aztecs, and any number of ancient cultures. In the 1940s, right after the invention of the nuclear bomb, you started having sightings in the Los Alamos area, including the infamous Roswell, New Mexico sighting in 1947 which allegedly involved a downed spacecraft with aliens that were retrieved. There's Area 51 which, according to some in the UFO community, houses alien technology. There's claims of Lockheed Martin being involved in reverse engineering of non-human technology. There are supposed sightings of all sorts of objects including: orbs, triangles, cubes with orbs inside, flying saucers, disks, obolid shapes, and now "drones". There are all sorts of theories and supposed "levels" of encounters.. 1st (witness the UFO), 2nd (see physical evidence of it on the ground), 3rd (actual encounter with an ET). You have agencies that pursued it (mainly to debunk it) in the 50s and 60s like Project Bluebook from the US Air Force (which was decommissioned by 1970), you have scientists that were skeptics that worked for Project Bluebook that became the leading researchers in UFOs like J. Allen Hynek (who made a cameo in the film, Close Encounters of the Third Kind). You had alien crazes after the Moon landing, in the 70s and 80s with various movies like Close Encounters, in the 90s you had X Files.. It died down for about 20 years, but is back with a vengeance. Now we have theories, based on supposed ex-government official testimony that there are crafts that are intermodal in that they can fly from the air into the water and back out again. So now there are theories of fringe theories in the UFO community about underground bases, of ships or probes that are produced and mimic various forms, etc. Now, the ET are not considered ET perhaps but NHI (non-human intelligence) that also inhabit our planet in some way alongside us, and have been all along.
Why is the fascination with UFOs back? Mainly it was caused by the recent couple years of US Congressional hearings that allowed "whistleblowers" to declare that the Pentagon has been tracking UFOs (now called "UAPs" or "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena") for years, and that they have hundreds of tapes of high resolution footage of them. Not only this, they claim that these programs have retrieved downed craft, and have attempted reverse engineering of them. They claim that it is hidden from the public, that it is "misallocated" funds (I guess meaning, not put where they were intended), and that evidence exists of all this. The caveat being that every time they were pressed for details of the first-hand evidence, the people claiming this would say that they signed top level non-disclosure agreements and that it is classified. Thus, their role as "whistleblower" seems to be pretty tepid. At this point, the validity seems to be primarily on the strength in the numbers of people that testify and the strength in character and credibility of the witnesses.
So, all that being said, what are the layers of epistemological truth that are involved here? Let me give some considerations...
1) The very fact that the US Congress is having hearings from ex-military personnel seems strange to me. A couple decades ago, if that was stated, I would have thought you were joking. Nowadays, however, with Trump being elected (twice!) and "fake" news, and all facts being considered as suspect, social media, and the "democratization" of information, everything is up for grabs in the media environment, thus most people now will just shrug their shoulders at the idea that a major country's legislative body has spent time listening to ex-military officials from the executive branch give testimony about programs that have found real UFOs, NHI, retrieval and reverse engineering programs. I think that is significant, but I am not sure if it is significant in the indifference that this is taken by the everyday person, or that the information itself being so otherworldly and "out there" is taken so seriously by US Congress. Either the general attitude is right, (show me the proof, this is more white noise in our oversaturated shock environment) or the Congressional hearing is trying to say something (there is some level of validity to the claim).
2) US Congress has authorized a new agency under the Department of Defense called AARO: https://www.aaro.mil/About/Mission-Vision/. This agency is specifically designed to investigate UAP. The first director, Sean Fitzpatrick seemed much more close-lipped and dismissive of the claims made by those in the hearings about the secret government programs. This led the UFO community to shout bullshit, and that he is covering it up. He stepped down and was replaced by Jon Kosloski who is still tight-lipped but apparently more willing to say that they are seeing things that cannot be explained. He has also indicated that he cannot so much as "part his hair" without the Pentagon approving, according to one interviewer. The press has also asked him about UAP after an AARO hearing in the Senate. Quoting Marik von Rennenkampff - The Hill
So with that we have various undertones, truths, half truths, and lies to wade through. I see this akin evaluating the validity of the source, the validity of the evidence, and the validity of the context.
Context: For the validity of context, I do think it is a significant that government agencies are holding any hearings at all about UAP. It would seem if there was no "there" there, it would be a major waste of taxpayer money and time. However, the counterargument is that the Congress members themselves are fringe cooks willing to entertain sensationalist bullshit. With the rise of Trump, QAnon, conspiracy theories, mistrust of government, and social media, I can see that... However, I this does seem to cross party lines, and otherwise "normal" politicians seem quite interested in this. Again, perhaps motivations would be for publicity or diversion.
From all this, Chuck Schumer has proposed a bill in the Senate for accountability and transparency surrounding UAPs, so top officials in Congress are taking this seriously.
Another theory could be that this is a major disinformation campaign by the Pentagon to throw off the public from actual activities related to things such as drone technology.. and that we are perhaps seeing played out now in various military installations, like in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, Washington, UK, Germany, and many other regions. This would presumably want the public to think of outlandish things whilst it plays around with some cool tech in "plain sight".
Evidence: The evidence is quite shabby at this point. There are a few videos like the "tic tac" video of UAPs caught on camera by Air Force pilots, ones that seem to whiz around at great speeds and go under water and out again. Some of these may have already been explained away, some not. The problem is the real "evidence" has only been alleged and when asked for them directly, the people who claim to know say they cannot say as its classified, and often say they would have to go to a "SKIF" to debrief them (outside of the hearing, with NDAs signed and with the Pentagon's authorization to do so, which probably wasn't given when requested). Supposedly there are high resolution videos, physical remains, and even "biologics".
Sources: The sources have so far been military pilots and ex-intelligence officers. The first one was David Grusch a year ago who "broke open" the case. The latest in mid-November of 2024 was mainly from Luis Elizondo, the ex-director of a department called "AATIP" which preceded AARO as an agency that investigated UAPs, and was originally started with the backing of Senator Harry Reid (an avid UFO enthusiast himself). He said that the evidence is there, and that the people with authorization to say anything are keeping it secret. He is trying to urge them to come forward. He claims also that there is a campaign to keep people like him silent. Here are some videos to better understand these Congressional hearings.
First round of UAP hearings 2023 clips:
Second round of UAP hearings 2024 clips:
Personally, I have never really cared about the topic, watching the occasional movie or show, but thinking it just fringe theories, akin to religions and out of body experiences, etc. However, what makes me take notice is the context- that it is being taken seriously by a major superpower. That does make me take notice more than I would previously. It is hard to wade through all this, but given the framework I provided of context, evidence, and sources, how should one evaluate claims?
Why is the fascination with UFOs back? Mainly it was caused by the recent couple years of US Congressional hearings that allowed "whistleblowers" to declare that the Pentagon has been tracking UFOs (now called "UAPs" or "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena") for years, and that they have hundreds of tapes of high resolution footage of them. Not only this, they claim that these programs have retrieved downed craft, and have attempted reverse engineering of them. They claim that it is hidden from the public, that it is "misallocated" funds (I guess meaning, not put where they were intended), and that evidence exists of all this. The caveat being that every time they were pressed for details of the first-hand evidence, the people claiming this would say that they signed top level non-disclosure agreements and that it is classified. Thus, their role as "whistleblower" seems to be pretty tepid. At this point, the validity seems to be primarily on the strength in the numbers of people that testify and the strength in character and credibility of the witnesses.
So, all that being said, what are the layers of epistemological truth that are involved here? Let me give some considerations...
1) The very fact that the US Congress is having hearings from ex-military personnel seems strange to me. A couple decades ago, if that was stated, I would have thought you were joking. Nowadays, however, with Trump being elected (twice!) and "fake" news, and all facts being considered as suspect, social media, and the "democratization" of information, everything is up for grabs in the media environment, thus most people now will just shrug their shoulders at the idea that a major country's legislative body has spent time listening to ex-military officials from the executive branch give testimony about programs that have found real UFOs, NHI, retrieval and reverse engineering programs. I think that is significant, but I am not sure if it is significant in the indifference that this is taken by the everyday person, or that the information itself being so otherworldly and "out there" is taken so seriously by US Congress. Either the general attitude is right, (show me the proof, this is more white noise in our oversaturated shock environment) or the Congressional hearing is trying to say something (there is some level of validity to the claim).
2) US Congress has authorized a new agency under the Department of Defense called AARO: https://www.aaro.mil/About/Mission-Vision/. This agency is specifically designed to investigate UAP. The first director, Sean Fitzpatrick seemed much more close-lipped and dismissive of the claims made by those in the hearings about the secret government programs. This led the UFO community to shout bullshit, and that he is covering it up. He stepped down and was replaced by Jon Kosloski who is still tight-lipped but apparently more willing to say that they are seeing things that cannot be explained. He has also indicated that he cannot so much as "part his hair" without the Pentagon approving, according to one interviewer. The press has also asked him about UAP after an AARO hearing in the Senate. Quoting Marik von Rennenkampff - The Hill
"During a briefing with reporters, Jon Kosloski, director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, admitted that the U.S. government is stumped by several true anomalies. According to Kosloski, There are interesting [UFO] cases that I, with my physics and engineering background and time in the [intelligence community], I do not understand. And I dont know anybody else who understands them either.
So with that we have various undertones, truths, half truths, and lies to wade through. I see this akin evaluating the validity of the source, the validity of the evidence, and the validity of the context.
Context: For the validity of context, I do think it is a significant that government agencies are holding any hearings at all about UAP. It would seem if there was no "there" there, it would be a major waste of taxpayer money and time. However, the counterargument is that the Congress members themselves are fringe cooks willing to entertain sensationalist bullshit. With the rise of Trump, QAnon, conspiracy theories, mistrust of government, and social media, I can see that... However, I this does seem to cross party lines, and otherwise "normal" politicians seem quite interested in this. Again, perhaps motivations would be for publicity or diversion.
From all this, Chuck Schumer has proposed a bill in the Senate for accountability and transparency surrounding UAPs, so top officials in Congress are taking this seriously.
Another theory could be that this is a major disinformation campaign by the Pentagon to throw off the public from actual activities related to things such as drone technology.. and that we are perhaps seeing played out now in various military installations, like in New Jersey, Virginia, New York, Washington, UK, Germany, and many other regions. This would presumably want the public to think of outlandish things whilst it plays around with some cool tech in "plain sight".
Evidence: The evidence is quite shabby at this point. There are a few videos like the "tic tac" video of UAPs caught on camera by Air Force pilots, ones that seem to whiz around at great speeds and go under water and out again. Some of these may have already been explained away, some not. The problem is the real "evidence" has only been alleged and when asked for them directly, the people who claim to know say they cannot say as its classified, and often say they would have to go to a "SKIF" to debrief them (outside of the hearing, with NDAs signed and with the Pentagon's authorization to do so, which probably wasn't given when requested). Supposedly there are high resolution videos, physical remains, and even "biologics".
Sources: The sources have so far been military pilots and ex-intelligence officers. The first one was David Grusch a year ago who "broke open" the case. The latest in mid-November of 2024 was mainly from Luis Elizondo, the ex-director of a department called "AATIP" which preceded AARO as an agency that investigated UAPs, and was originally started with the backing of Senator Harry Reid (an avid UFO enthusiast himself). He said that the evidence is there, and that the people with authorization to say anything are keeping it secret. He is trying to urge them to come forward. He claims also that there is a campaign to keep people like him silent. Here are some videos to better understand these Congressional hearings.
First round of UAP hearings 2023 clips:
Second round of UAP hearings 2024 clips:
Personally, I have never really cared about the topic, watching the occasional movie or show, but thinking it just fringe theories, akin to religions and out of body experiences, etc. However, what makes me take notice is the context- that it is being taken seriously by a major superpower. That does make me take notice more than I would previously. It is hard to wade through all this, but given the framework I provided of context, evidence, and sources, how should one evaluate claims?
Comments (88)
I don't view this through an epistimological lens, as if suggesting the meaning of "truth" has shifted or that there is some paradigm shift where we now accept non-scientific perspectives when deciphering what is true or not.
I view this through a political lens, as in who is saying it, why they're saying it, and what power they wish to gain through saying it.
It's a strange turn of events, but the right today represents a counterculture perspective in some regards. They no longer believe in traditional institutions. They reject what the government tells them as all being propoganda. They reject consensus scientific view as being designed for a malicious purpose. Vaccines are designed solely for profit and population control, climate science is designed to offer support for Robin Hoods to control wealth, the FBI is designed to eliminate freedoms, and theories get thrown around about how the entirety of Washington is a massive pedophelia ring. Universities are viewed as powerful mechanisms of control and manipulation of the average citizen, bringing about a 180 degree change from the day when the universities viewed themselves as the speaker for the average citizen.
The UFO thing is consistent with all of this. It's another instance of someone or something having taken over society in some surreptitious way, with a final plan to take the hard earned belongings and freedoms from average Americans. It's all the result of distrust and paranoia.
The problem is that the distrust and paranoia has been earned. It's not that the right is rational in its response, but it's not that the left has maintained a moral high ground either. Do what you want, say what you want, try to get what you want, and if you get caught, be more clever the next time.
Meanwhile, drones fly over NJ and no one is entitled to an explanation.
Shoot them down and wait to see who sues you. Problem solved.
Where do you get a surface to air missle?
I wondered about that, but this article says religious people are less likely to believe in UFOs than are atheists.
https://religionnews.com/2021/08/23/for-atheists-the-idea-of-aliens-seems-real-religious-people-doubt-it/
Not sure but I expect it has a lot to do with people's fear and expectations about the future - AI, technology, politics, etc. I think Jung saw UFO's as an emerging mythology triggered by present day concerns. But media primes us for this stuff and websites abound with conspiracies attached to this narrative. US writer and psychologist David J. Halperin seems to argue they are fear of death and that UFO's preoccupy us when our ontological safety is threatened.
Quoting Hanover
I've known quite a number of atheists who believe in UFO's, ghosts and Bigfoot too. We tend to forget that atheism only refers to disbelief in one thing.
To start, this is a great summary of where things stand. It's easy to see you put time and effort into it. I haven't been paying much attention lately so it's nice to get a feel for what's up. Thanks.
Quoting schopenhauer1
A prominent philosopher, S. Chopenhauer1, provided evidence today that Donald Trump is a space alien... Never mind.
Back in the early 2000s, as the Iraq War spun up, I came to an understanding that truth is just whatever you can convince people of. We've gone beyond that - now no one can convince anyone of anything. My suggested response to is to just stop trying. To the extent possible, avoid issues that are as tangled up as the UFO business. Just let it go. Don't resist. Let people get it out of their system. Of course, there are lots of issues we can't do that with, but as far as I can see, this is not one of them. Some additional thoughts, clearly not all of them are original.
I am not certain about anything related to UFOs, but the thing I am closest to being certain about is that no government agency could keep a secret like this for 75 years.
People make things up, misapprehend things, and come to believe things that aren't true. They don't have to be dishonest to get it wrong, but they might be. I recommend a book by Martin Gardner, "Science - Good, Bad, and Bogus." It's from the late 1980s, but I think the stories Gardner tells are still relevant. It's about people, both frauds and gullible but honest advocates, making claims about extraordinary phenomena that are not adequately supported by evidence. Subjects covered include UFOs, ESP, bad science, and other fringe issues. The second edition came just too late to include cold fusion. One of the main points he makes is that scientists are often more gullible than laypeople because they have such confidence in their ability to observe and reason.
I love the fact that a big part of the government's solution is to rename UFOs and start another new agency.
Of course the irony is that the government could address a lot of this by opening their files. Are their still secrets about events in the 1940s that can't be disclosed for legitimate security reasons? Perhaps. Of course, they've sort of, kind of done that by letting congress have hearings. As you note, that hasn't really resolved anything.
Quoting schopenhauer1
I remember reading about a Congressional hearing on climate change. A NASA scientist was describing the physics, astronomy, and climate science related to global warming when he mentioned in passing, and I'm sure to his instant regret, that if the Earth were just a bit further from the sun, warming would be addressed. A Republican congressman spoke up and asked why we couldn't direct the Bureau of Land Management to move the earth a bit further out.
Interesting enough, I think that can be considered "epistemological" :D. Certainly, someone like Foucault may argue that, for example.
Quoting Hanover
This last line seems contradictory, no? Wouldn't that be more like, "Drones are flying over NJ, and people just haven't been paying attention- mass hysteria?" Because what you relayed was paranoia about alleged corruption of government institutions, yet the last line insinuates actual disinformation (at the least).
Aside from that, little has changed. Man sees something unfamiliar, it's either two or three things. Something of use, something of harm, or something that could go either way. Those who aired on the middle option, often survived. Perhaps many did not and perished where those who aired on the first or third option did. We're simple beings, really. Not much has changed in that regard.
Yes, so you are attributing it to psychological phenomena, something like mass hysteria or public psychosis. I think media can generate a great deal of this. However, if my theory is correct, and that this latest batch of UFO stuff is from the congressional hearings, what does that indicate in regards to the validity of the claim?
The answer is revealing. If it is a fact that there was a major governmental hearing entertaining a "whistleblower" about UFOs, does that mean there is something to it, or that the government is run by crazy conspiracists? What should the public think of it? It looks like its affecting how people see the skies around them, for example.
Trump can barely keep his mouth closed about anything. If he knew, that you don't think he would be breadcrumbing that all day and night?? Then again, the "deep state" doesn't trust him, so maybe not ;).
Quoting T Clark
Right, so is there a "there" there? Is it secrecy because government rather have people fooled by UFO stuff when they are working on military technology?
This is assuming any of it is real and not just disinformation or misunderstanding.
No, I am saying this is a candidate explanation. I don't have a firm grasp on what is happening, who is seeing what and what is real and what is media driven and what may be viral hysteria.
Quoting schopenhauer1
Well, for my money, until we actually have something demonstrated to us, we really should suspend our judgement on this 'phenomenon'.
Agreed. What should one make of Congress entertaining/hosting it? A bunch of crazy conspiracists or because there is something more? This is the "context" part I was discussing.
Atheists believe in UFOs because they don't believe in God. Theists don't need to believe in UFOs because they believe in God. Neither one really believes that we are all alone.
UFOs and bigfoot could exist under our current concept of physics and scientific reality. Gods and angels, not so much. Many theists subscribe to Creationist accounts, and most such literature makes no reference to otherworldly creatures, except for those who reside up high or down low and have supernatural powers.
I think that's probably why atheists can better accept UFOs and fundamentalists cannot.
I think my reasons set out to 180 directly above makes more sense, but I'm interested in why you think an atheist would need there to be UFOs to impart meaning on their lives and why you think theists would lose something if they accepted that UFOs existed.
My view is that there aren't aliens because I've never seen one in the zoo. If you can show me one, I'll change my mind. It's sort of like bigfoot. I'll believe in it when it walks through my backyard,.
I added a sentence for that:
Quoting Leontiskos
For atheists it is statistically improbable that we are all alone, therefore there must be alien intelligence. If you follow the actual reasoning this is what you will find.
Edit: There is also the narrative that solves the abiogenesis question by appealing to extra terrestrials.
Quoting Hanover
Except that scientific atheists do not limit their conception of extraterrestrials to our current concept of physics, and smart atheists know that God and angels do not contradict science.
Quoting Hanover
But haven't you equivocated between fundamentalists and believers? Was your study about fundamentalists?
You can prove that there is a flying saucer in your back yard - f(a) - by showing it to us.
You can thereby prove that there are flying saucers - ?(x)f(x)
You might show that there are no flying saucers in your back yard.
You can not disprove that there are flying saucers. Showing that there are non in your back yard does not show that there are not some elsewhere. In Popper's terms, the thesis is no falsifiable.
But also, and obviously, that people have been looking for flying saucers does not prove that there are flying saucers.
But if someone is investigating big foot, and someone is investigating nuclear weapons, one is obviously verifiable as a high probability, and one not so much. UFOs are somewhere in between perhaps? This is why sources matter. Sources for this would be military pilots and intelligence officers that are or were formally in government positions to see this first hand. The pilots have testimony and/or video. The testimony stands based on how credible you think the witness is on what they thought they saw, and how lucid they were. The video speaks for itself, but obviously can be explained a whole bunch of ways including quality of the recording device and the parallax effect when viewing moving objects at certain angles and trajectories. As for the ex-military intelligence officers, again, this would have to rely purely on credibility of the person providing testimony, their willingness to be charged with perjury if they were found to be lying, etc.
So in a way, you can make a matrix like this:
The institutional distributor of information matters for the public (Is the info coming from a "legitimate" institution like government agencies, or is it coming from your Uncle Joe).
Sources matter for the information gatherers: (Is the info coming from "legitimate" credible witnesses and accounts, or from bad actors?
Evidence matters for information gatherers and the public (Is the info first hand accounts, are they recorded, do we have any physical artifacts? Have they been analyzed for material composition, biologics, and comparative design?
Yes, and that distinction is important. I am looking at the level of the significance of why supposedly legitimate institutions are "looking" for flying saucers. Is that a result of the abundance of evidence (some perhaps not fully disclosed), or simply the actors doing the "looking"?
UAP does not entail aliens; the concern is that a foreign government might be using technology beyond ours. That is potentially relevant, but that may be an excuse, since the alleged behavior often breaks the laws of physics.
The notion that aliens are here is an irrational conspiracy theory. Members of Congress are as susceptible to this as anyone (former Senator Harry Reid was a believer). Space opera science fiction is so common that it's made many of us receptive to the presence of aliens. Meanwhile, few understand why the liklihood of aliens is of vanishing low probability.
The broader question is: why do so many people embrace conspiracy theories? The answer is: poor critical thinking skills. Where there are unanswered questions, there will be wild guesses to explain them. The guess gains traction as more facts are shown to fit the guess (applying confirmation bias), and contrary facts ignored or treated as a cover-up by those in authority. A recent example is the attempted killing of Trump, which spawned pro-Trump conspiracies (the deep State, or Democrats were behind it) and anti-Trump conspiracies (it was staged to help his campaign).
If you're interested in critically analyzing any specific claims about UAE, go to the METABUNK forum. They have subforums on other conspiracy theories as well.
Sure - there's many ways to do a risk matrix.
I imagine that the main concern (if true) would be are they the product of a foreign power or a homegrown terrorist? One can ignore one or two eye witnesses but not so easily a plethora of accounts. I wouldn't think aliens is the first idea people go to, unless they already happen to think aliens are a given.
Quoting Relativist
Yep.
But there is nothing there.
The survey showed that atheists were more likely than Christians to believe there was life elsewhere in the universe. That's probably because they believe God created the universe for humans.
I just don't understand why aliens from distant planets want my used appliances and furniture. They could at least offer to trade something -- maybe their old orgazmatron couch, or some nice floor covering?
Aliens are a given to many people, and I suspect, others are apt to be easily convinced because they hope for (or dread) their presence.
I've encountered quite a few people, who are otherwise rational, who are apt to treat aliens as plausible explanations that should be taken seriously.
But why would they do that? Distraction? Obfuscation? Disinformation? Whats the point?
But thats not what was said from people like Elizondo. He talked directly of NHI. And there were several questions about this. Im not saying its true or hes not lying, but this wasnt just a hearing on foreign adversary technology.
Quoting Relativist
Right but the more established the institution, the more prominent the officials willing to entertain the inquiries on UAP, the more susceptible the public will be in believing something fantastical is going on. So here we are with increased alleged drone and UAP sightings.
Aliens are huge thrift store shoppers. They like a good deal and love knick knacks. The clutter in their space ships looks like a grandma's house.
You've heard of Fermi's Paradox? "If intelligent life is plentiful in the universe, then where is everybody? We should have been visited."
In my universe, beings who have spent light years getting here would not spend decades playing hide and seek games. They would fly over, land on the ground or hover over it, and it would be crystal clear to everyone that THEY were here. Then they would come out of their ships and demand tribute in the form of kitchen and laundry appliances which Americans worked very hard to get (according to @Hanover). Chinese and French appliances are of no interest to them.
In order to make us understand how serious they were, they would probably blow Manhattan to smithereens with one shot.
After America had been fleeced of every Maytag, Ikea chair, and Miele dishwasher worth having, with all the loot loaded up, they'd leave and go back to XZV4739b and sell their plunder to eager homeowners there. Will they be back? Depends on fashion trends out there in the various galactic arms.
I expect there are some members of Congress who take kooks like Elizando seriously, but focusing on national security provides common ground, and lets them play both sides.
Will these hearings get more people on the bandwagon? The hearings and reports will surely feed the true-believers. I guess that it will bring attention to the topic, so it could induce receptive people to take it more seriously..
Never thought that one a particularly useful paradox. If aliens have sufficiently advanced technology to get here from Christ knows how many light years away, and defy laws of physics as we know them, then I would also conclude they might have capacity to visit without us being aware of their presence. The big surprise really would be huge silver saucers in the sky - more likely to be the Russians. :razz:
@Hanover I thought this video useful. Mind you, this came out before the second Congressional hearing but after the first one (with David Grusch), so it looks like these are all people involved in the same UFO circles and are circular referencing each other, perhaps. If that is the case, this adds more to the point about "epistemology" and how one determines the truth of the matter. Can a kooky group of people be right by accident, or can they be dismissed out of hand for all the fringe stuff they are involved in? Like a broken clock, can a fringe group actually get something right, even if a majority of their interests can be thrown out as pseudo-science? Either way, the only thing that piques my interest from these groups is the seriousness which the US government takes some of the claims. At least, it is serious enough to allow for hearings and to be televised, etc. Of course, we can say that we are just living in a big entertainment world right now, so it's to be expected, and that probably wouldn't be wrong. It's all the spectacle and truth is basically "the spectacle", pace Guy Debord.
Keep in mind with this video, that there is seems to be an implicit bias here- it seems like a hit piece. Also, I believe AATIP was actually recognized contra this video as another name for a division of an actual program from the Pentagon called AASAP. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Aerospace_Threat_Identification_Program
So it looks like even Greenstreet was given misinformation from the Pentagon for which he drew his conclusions. However, I think the notion that these UFO folks are from the same circle is relevant to the credibility.
The notion that the government has been hiding the known presence of extraterrestrial beings/technology can absolutely be dismissed out of hand. The probability is infinitesimal that technically advanced, motivated aliens exist within a navigable distance from earth.
Can the true-believers get "something" right? Not sure what that might be, other than the fact that there is secrecy in the military. The general problem is that they fit everything into their belief that aliens are (or have been) here, and the government is hiding this from us.
I agree. If you look at that video in my last post you can see that it's the pet project of some people that seems to have been given more air time. But again, my interest is not really the claims so much as the increase in institutions taking it seriously. Otherwise, I wouldn't care so much or be interested. If I see a clip from C-SPAN I expect some boring stuff about a new monument or budget, or currently, grandstanding politicians about whatever issue. I don't expect UFOs. So when I see that, I take notice. Here is another revealing video below from the first hearing.
Here is another revealing video below.
They had me at dinobeavers.
@Hanover
For reference, here are the two hearings where people testified to Congress under oath about these programs. Skip around to what might interest you.
David Grusch and First Hearing
Luis Elizondo and Second Hearing
:lol:
If RFKJr is confirmed as Secretary of HHS, we may see considerably more institutions taking silly claims seriously.
I forgot to include this:
The story said there have been a couple of radiation spikes detected previously in the NY / NJ area which were not explained. This source said that there are fears that North Korea might over time smuggle the various parts for a complete atomic bomb into the country, then assemble it and use it at their convenience.
Of course, WE don't know where THEY put the bomb parts (or bomb) so scanning is covering a large area, looking for abnormal radiation emissions. (I don't know how much radiation a nuclear core would emit, just sitting there on someone's coffee table.).
This scenario is the sort of thing the government would be secretive about, lest people fear the worse and suddenly act on their fears in mass panic. If I thought there was a surreptitious nuclear bomb in my neighborhood, I'd be worried.
This seems like a far more plausible scenario than aliens from a long ways away. Earthlings have always been able to out-alienate everybody else in the galaxy.
EDIT:
I DIDN'T READ THIS ON REDDIT, BUT SOMEBODY ELSE...
https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/1heg8ot/could_the_drones_be_looking_for_a_suspected_nuke/
I heard this story too but I thought it was debunked.
According to some in the UFO community, the idea of "disclosure" is big. That is the idea that the government might slowly disclose that we know of UFOs and NHI all along. Some claim that the government is slowly dripping it because they think it's such a shift in our view of the world, they cannot do it all at once without causing panic. Of course, every time they think it will be disclosed, it never does. These drone incidents would probably be seen in this light.
For fun's sake, let's say it's all true. The government has aliens and alien technology and have for years. If they were to disclose this, what would be the best way to do this understanding social psychology?
Edit: What's interesting about this disclosure idea is that it can become a hope akin to religion, because you can always look for increasing signs that the government is going to reveal it any day now..
Interestingly enough you have a lot of strands going on at the same time. They can be completely isolated or connected.
Strand 1: UFO hearings.
Strand 2: Increased activity of drones and UAP around military bases.
Strand 3: Current drones reported near New Jersey
1 can inform the rest by simply getting people to be distracted while testing drones.
2 can be connected to 3.
The more fringe theories would say 1, 2, and 3 are all connected.
True enough, a large passenger plane taking off at night can seem like it is hovering at certain points in its flight, but this is a very short-lived phenomena. Within a minute or two the impression of hovering ceases aas the plane picks up speed and climbs. By the time a plane is overhead it is unmistakably a plane--not a bird, not Superman, not a drone.
My guess is that people in New Jersey have some idea about what they are seeing that is reasonably accurate. Helicopters make distinctive noise, and if they are hovering, it's a pain in the neck to listen to them. My understanding is that drones don't make helicopter-type sounds; instead it's a whine. How far away one can hear a large drone whining, don't know.
I have no idea whether the Koreans or Iranians or Australians might be hiding a nuclear bomb or two, smuggled into the country. It's not a far-fetched idea. What better way to stage a decapitation event as part of a war?
Perhaps Santa Claus is testing out drones as a humane alternative to forcing reindeer to fly thousands and thousands of miles in one night. Or maybe Santa is looking for gains in delivery efficiency. This business of landing on roofs, slithering down a narrow dirty (and possibly hot) chimney (if there even is one) with a bag has to be a nightmare of wasted time and motion. If they capture a drone, it is likely to be "manned" by elves. Or, maybe Santa needs more data about who's been bad or good, and the old Christmas surveillance methods just aren't sufficient any more.
Why only looking at night? Clearly that isn't much of a cover :lol:.
Quoting BC
Well, that NORAD Santa Claus tracker seems to get more attention than this New Jersey case. As you noted:
Quoting BC
Seems the government is either majorly gaslighting or the drones are nothing more than the new norm of many companies and citizens flying their new flying machines.
Quoting schopenhauer1
@BC
The issue for me is the term "the Government" what does that really mean? Does this suggest a single, monolithic, united and coherent group who has consistently acted in unison to maintain such a secret? Or are we saying a secret body which keeps secrets - attached to government, but not really part of governing? The mind boggles.
To me it is like the term 'they'. It's always 'they' who lie to us or do bad things to us. 'They' don't want us to know the truth. 'They' are making money out of it. 'They' are responsibly for disinformation, etc, etc.
That said, this would a massive story if true and I would imagine there would be a risk of unrestrained anger, panic and scapegoating. Not sure there would be a good or entirely safe way to reveal this.
Just a suggestion for the admin.
There is no evidence because the conspiracy covers everything up.
Therefore not believing the conspiracy is compliant with the conspiracy.
If the committee cannot get to any real evidence, it is either because the committee is being duped by the conspiracy, or because the committee is part of the cover up.
There can never be a resolution, because the absence of evidence is evidence of the conspiracy.
The intelligence industry is the natural home of the paranoid, just as philosophy is the home of the gullible. And yes there is an overlap. And just because I'm paranoid, that doesn't mean there's no conspiracy; on the contrary, the paranoid are always conspiring, so nothing to see here.
The question I have for the aliens, not knowing if they are benevolent or malevolent, is why they are cooperating with opposed and secretive governments to hide their presence from folks that would be willing to cooperate with anyone who wasn't the current government of whichever country? It makes them look weak; and surely they are not weak?
Haha, it's always some shadowy smoke filled backroom somewhere with anonymous men in suits under hazy light. I guess in this case "they" is supposed to be some "secret" super top secret arm of a military or intelligence community. This one is allegedly known as "Immanent Constellation" or something like that. Usually it's alleged to be somewhere in the Pentagon.
But you see, this is how the "disclosure" conspiracy works. For reasons like the ones you list, these conspiracy theorists claim that unlike previous years, starting last year with the congressional hearing, and this new one, and the drones, and the increased UAP sightings and activity, the US government is trying to slowly get the public used to this secret and that it is going to be fully disclosed soon, maybe by someone like Trump. Again, this has the whiff of old school hopes for End of Times prophecies. It's going to come any day now.. It's getting closer and closer... You watch...
Now, some in this group believe that the aliens (or "non-human intelligence) are actually trying to make themselves known more and more, and the government cannot prevent it, so is trying to either obfuscate it either with their own drones or by denying anything is going on, or slowly getting people used to the idea of weird phenomena in the sky that is really NHI. Again, I'm just conveying some current views to show how creative it can get.
Of course the situation is probably something more like this:
- There is just generally more drone activity globally because more people are flying drones. People think this is a sign of something more.
- People are paying attention to the skies more because of media about UAP, and this combined with more drones means people are now just noticing the new "norm" of increased drone activity
- There may be an increase in certain areas around military installations because Ockham's Razor- military are testing their large drones! This is the current state and future of warfare.
-The government does act shady around military technology but that is obvious because it's generally the MO of the military to keep things confidential in general
Yep, this seems to be how this works. As I stated above:
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/954602
Quoting unenlightened
Right? I can only speculate, but some answers from the NHI community would be:
1) They prefer to work with the heads of government or have an agreement with them.
2) There is no live "they". Rather, we only have evidence of NHI from crafts and/or dead alien bodies. There's never been actual communication. However, somehow they agreed to not disclose themselves until they deemed humans are ready for it?
My guess is it would have to be the fringe of the fringe to even entertain 1. But 2 probably represents the standard view.
Well, that 2 to be "the standard view" is.... on the limits on what we can say to be a standard view.
But let's assume that 2 is correct and further let's assume Trump (and who else than that narcissist) makes option 2 totally public, starting from apologizing to the people of Roswell. If that happens, what's the end result?
1) One global media frenzy. Think about a time to put on an Alien costume and put it on Youtube as the first encounter!
2) Likely other countries, perhaps even the Catholic Church, will come forward with "new that, old stuff" comments. Perhaps the Pope says something about the greatness of God etc.
3) The US will have a boondoggle of Congressional hearings about a secret program that in the end will look a complete farce. How could this happen? Where was Congressional oversight?
Likely we won't see a fleet of UFO's hovering around the UN Building to make the official contact with the official global authority, UN's Office for Outer Space Affairs (Unoosa), for formalizing the already seems to be so ordinary connections to Earth's governments. I think they would likely wait and see.
4) Trumpian Deep State theories would become mainstream. Politics would be even more absurd.
5) After a few months, it would be as old news as us living through a dangerous pandemic that killed millions where people were confined to stay at home.
Loved to see history of the encounters then...
It would certainly be a frenzy. I think there would be more than that. There would be an economic crisis, the stock market might crash, people would start re-evaluating their place in the universe as beings with greater intelligence or extraordinary powers would put us in a status as not "alone". It would be akin to something religious perhaps.
Quoting ssu
Certainly religions would try to accommodate this and even speak of it in terms of religious phenomena perhaps.
Quoting ssu
This certainly, but this would be the least hectic thing. I don't think you would have anything else being discussed for a solid year.
Quoting ssu
It depends on the nature of what was "disclosed". I would say it would simply be that we know of alien technology, and that they fly around, so close encounters of the 1st and 2nd kind, but not really 3rd kind. That is to say, there are some form of anomalous life forms that seem to have intelligence that we cannot account for and seem to be watching us, but no communication is established or understanding yet of what they are or what they are doing.
The fact that the government is willing to have these public hearings tells me that the government doesn't actually have a whole lot to hide. If they had something to hide, they'd be trying much harder to hide it.
Then again, maybe that's exactly what the government wants me to think...
The disclosure people would say that it is a slow drip so they get ahead of it before the big reveal :D.
The issue is that of technological advancement and capability of traveling to other worlds and overcoming the light speed barrier to do so. In this regard we have no conclusive proof or evidence that this has happened but are left with conspiracy theories that they have in fact visited earth but are covered up by government. The question is why?
One of the reasons it could have been covered up is that were a war mongering species so any technological advantage we may develop because of this tech would be best kept under wraps in order to maintain such an advantage.
Personally I do not believe that governments have had any contact or exchange with alien civilisations by the mere fact that had we done so wed be more enlightened and collaborative as a species instead of a war mongering one.
Also if aliens capable of traversing interstellar distances would most likely come in peace and would want to instantiate or initiate contact with us, and the fact that this hasnt happened is not due to some conspiracy but rather that they havent tried to make contact with us or just hasnt happened.
I don't know but that might be what they might say. A "believer" might say that the government does not want a panic and perhaps are worried about the public's unpredictable reaction to such news.
Some of the ideas floating right now (no pun intended), is that the "real" UAP are these "orbs" that some people see, and the drones are actually there to investigate the orbs.
Perhaps it's institutional inertia. They hid it for so long, that to reveal it would be also to reveal the government hid their knowledge, and distrust would be even greater so they don't want to increase that.
Again, I am just giving speculations based on fringe theories.
I think you give governments more credit than they are due when it comes to their ability to cover their tracks after all there would be leaks somewhere down the line.
It would be cool if aliens have or had visited us but I just dont believe it has happened. Plus with everyone having a camera at their fingertips these days we would have evidence for it but we hardly have any credible ones.
I'm more on the skeptic side until provided any sufficient evidence from reliable sources. When I propose these fringe theories, I am doing it for the sake of argument.
Quoting kindred
The UFO theorists might say that many people have photographed sightings and many pilots have reported it to FAA and AARO:
https://www.aaro.mil/
https://www.aaro.mil/UAP-Cases/Official-UAP-Imagery/
And of course ex-intelligence officials like Luis Elizando and investigative journalists like Michael Shellenberger who claim that there are other programs, and there is more evidence that is kept hidden such as high resolution pictures and videos etc.
Nah.
Something religious, something philosophical.
But then life would go along. Just as it has to. You have to go to work, pay the bills, walk the dog. And so on...
Quoting schopenhauer1
But haven't had the ability to understand it. Otherwise it would be already our technology. And this is the real harm that has been done with the secrecy, assuming there would be the technology. It's been in the hands of some specifically picked scientist who have sworn to secrecy. And that's the worst that can happen with tech.
Just think how little the Soviet Space program helped ordinary Soviet technology compared to how NASA's achievements and programs have spurred useful technology for the US household. Tech held secret won't help anybody. And tech that we don't understand and know will help even less when it's kept secret.
Make a global effort to understand the technology... would be also likely what advanced space travelling species would see as something positive from us.
Yeah for sure, existential dread and mundanity doesn't go away :wink:. Like any new revelation, it would be at first shocking, and then we would just learn that it is part of the way things are, and people would go about their daily lives. However, I think it would become part of regular briefings and updates, etc.. if it were actually true that is.
Quoting ssu
Funnily enough, bureaucratic red tape and secrecy would actually hamper more advancement. Assuming this exists (big if), it would be in the highest levels of confidentiality. That being said, intelligence officers at the highest levels would probably make sure that each department that studied these artifacts of technology would be separated as much as possible from each other on a "need to know" basis. Thus, if they need consulting from a materials engineer they will only be revealed aspects dealing with that. If they need propulsion experts, they only deal with mechanical engineers and physicists that deal with those fields. They would never allow any one scientist/expert/officer to know the full details. Only a very few would have the big picture. Thus, being that collaboration might be at a minimum, progress might be slower than it would take if there was a larger project akin to a Manhattan Project. Then again, this is all just fun speculation on my part. I'm just giving possible scenarios.
Quoting ssu
Well, I would tend to agree, and thus, if it was secret, I can imagine many efforts to reengineer any technology or to study it in the greatest detail might be encumbered without more people looking at it. However, if you think about it, the technology might be treated like military technology and thus, if there is a way to have an advantage over other countries, the confidential nature becomes paramount. However, I find the notion funny the NHI space craft are making themselves known more and more to the point where it forces the government's hand.
(2022) Convergence of our species with aliens ...
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/774893
(2022) UFOs ...
https://thephilosophyforum.com/discussion/comment/814458
And we should note the importance there of that iff.
Quoting 180 Proof
And we shouldn't forget the psychological / social aspect of UFOs.
Modern science has brought us so much information, that we do not believe anymore in the existence of goblins and trolls or fairies as mythical creatures that lived in the forest. The forest isn't a place where there are these magical creatures. Well, with aliens outside of our planet there is this great unknown, which we cannot be sure about. Modern science is the first entity telling that it's totally possible, after now as it has shown by evidence that there are other planets in other star systems and there's many planets rather similar to us. It's a perfect place for our collective imagination to go.
Of course the secret projects themselves show just how difficult it is to hide anything flying. Even before the F-17 was made public, there were actually quite good models about it, and also publicized Soviet intel. For instance this Revell model of a "F-19" I think in 1988 was made so close, that the US government was a bit upset:
When you compare it to the actual 59 F-117 built, making it's first flight in 1977 and then with the service delivery in 1982, wasn't pure guessing, because the F-117 made it's public appearance only 1990:
The history of the "Skunk Work"-projects tell quite a lot what can be hidden and what kinds of things cannot be. Yet aviation history will tell us what were the actual projects and how far they got. As these are also "top secret", they give a good contrast to the UFO story. The great "iff", as @180 Proof said.
Our irrational fears may be underscored by sensible fears. I fear the widespread use of drones for package delivery because they will be annoying, intrusive, and unavoidable. People have similar fears about infrastructure projects -- freeways, big airports, super-tall billionaire residential towers, etc. There is clearly a lot more sky traffic over New Jersey than there is over me, and I don't envy them.
There is also the power of suggestion. If actual alien abductions had been witnessed 10 times, but had never been mentioned to anyone at any time, rumors of these weird events would not have propagated.
I think the UFO/alien folks are looking for meaning beyond the mundane. It also gives a sort of hope- that something bigger than humans is out there and that their beliefs would be vindicated all along.
As others were saying, it also belies a mistrust in government, and actual psy-ops during the Cold War. Better for people to attribute things in the air to aliens than to new technology. Drones are just the newest version.
My guess is New Jersey is congested with air traffic because it's so close to so many population centers, airports, and military facilities. Combine all this and you have a fairly crowded skies. Has there been an uptick in drone usage since November? Probably. Some people were saying that people were testing them before Christmas and things like this.
I think Steven Greenstreet pretty much hit the nail that there is a group of UFO aficionados who essentially cross-reference each other. I don't think all of them are necessarily lying, but rather embellishing or falsely attributing unknowingly. That is to say, yes there might be really fast moving "tic tac" UAP, or even weird orbs, or other anomalous sightings, but not much more than the footage we have. And "crash retrievals" might just be weird materials being studied in a lab that are falsely attributed to crashed UAP. So it's actually a bit more nuanced than outright lies.
But would I want there to be some secret program this whole time that would be revealed to the public in a crazy disclosure? Sure, why not. I think like most people, such an astonishing revelation would be a nice diversion and keep us entertained for a long while.
I think this is the correct assessment. I followed Greenstreet fairly closely a few years ago when I was bored.
Quoting schopenhauer1
Agree. There's a religious element to this wherein people see a kind of transcendence from everyday humanity, a way of re-enchanting the world via a kind of techno-spiritual movement. And I've noticed that once committed to this thinking, it is almost impossible to shake people, even with evidence. It becomes a faith-based system that is impervious to outsiders, who are either 'idiots' or part of the system's duplicity.
If it's harmless, let them have it. Although philosophically, is there something morally relevant in being a few degrees divorced from reality, living in your own fanfiction? I think the theories are fun to read about if you do it from a purely skeptical standpoint. But some people think the disclosure will prove all the skeptics wrong. It'll happen soon by X date, with X person.
Quoting Tom Storm
I suppose people who have read/watched too much sci-fi would be suspectable to this. However, I can see why it would be harder to shake than other things. There are hearings on it from government officials, this gives it a "sheen" of legitimacy.
Yes, to me it has the same rhythms as the second coming. The alien rapture is nigh - we can read all the signs .
Quoting schopenhauer1
If. I guess theres the potential that such beliefs may lead to harmful practices, like those of cults and religions. For now it seems the the greatest harm is fleecing people at conferences and via merchandise.
Quoting schopenhauer1
Yes, that's why I wrote
Quoting 180 Proof
Above all, if you believe, you're important. You're not in the mass of the "sheeple", as the conspiracy theorists view other people.
These two blend in perfectly. Or at least, before Congressional testimonies and US fighter pilot interviews that made the discourse a lot more different. (Or before conspiracy theories of the deep State wasn't official as it is now in the Trump administration)
Yet before that... it was just like the belief in the paranormal something on the fringe.
Quoting schopenhauer1
Americans have this perplexed emotions towards their government: on the one hand it is as inefficient and bureacratic as any large government is, on the other hand it's this nearly uncanny giant octopus capable of hiding the most elaborate secrets. In any way, the real threat is somehow the US government.
The UFO conspiracy theory makes this so obvious. If in the 1950's Hollywood movies the when the aliens invaded, the ordinary Americans turned into the heroes in the movie assist and get help from the Armed forces. This changed into the narrative where the ordinary Americans turned into the heroes in the movie have to fight against the US government. Apart from some jingoist "Independence Day" movies which more made to have that happy Saturday night eating popcorn at the movies than make any serious comment about anything, the UFO conspiracy has become one of those narratives why you must mistrust your government.
This is a part of it too as obviously someone with higher technology has to be better than us, hence the techno-spiritualism.
And when the conspiracy theories don't emerge to be true (which if shown to be true would make the issue immediately mainstream and to be commented by far more "serious" people than the conspiracy theorists, then what you need is the belief that it is still true.
It reminds me a bit of Gnosticism. Gnostics had secret knowledge only the initiated can understand fully.
Quoting ssu
It is this exact thing that has piqued my interest- the Congressional hearings. What does that mean for the status of UFOs? Are they something to be taken legitimately? The discourse around it is no longer fringe as you say, so what is it? UFO literally means "Unidentified Flying Object". The new term, UAP, means "Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena". So as far as first hand evidence from videos and pilots, this would seem in the realm of acceptability. That is to say, it could be anything from natural phenomena to adversarial technology. However, people like Grusch and Elizando are attributing it to NHI (non-human intelligence), and that we have retrieved air craft and "biologics" (bodies?). So you see how the claims of possible quickly become suspect to claims of the extraordinary. Yet Congress doesn't seem to dismiss it out of hand. Is that because the US Congress is increasingly populated by conspiracy theorists or because they know of some confidential information related to this that they are trying to reveal to the public slowly? The UFO guys are saying that there is stuff we have and it just needs to be revealed. Why would Elizando and Grusch testify under oath if it was found to be lacking in evidence at some point? Why would the government allow them to say this stuff if they wanted it secret? Notice, the story can write itself. All you have to say is the government wants us to know slowly over time so when the big reveal happens, we are not so shocked, and talk of UAP and NHI is normalized. I am not saying I necessarily believe that, but you see why all of this is bizarre.
Quoting ssu
Right, the biggest blow to this theory is that a secret of this magnitude could be kept secret for this long. But, then because of the nature of this type of conspiracy thinking, you can always say that it hasn't been kept secret really, that some people have known and their stories are true all along. Of course, most of them end up being charlatans. This new batch though seems a bit more sophisticated. They were part of counter-intelligence, they were researching UAP, and they do have at least some videos already de-classified to refer back to.
This then brings me back to truth and epistemology. At what point is something a lie? If Elizando truly believes they are NHI, that there are retrieval programs he has knowledge of, and biologics, but he says he cannot give details because he has signed a confidentiality agreement, what do we make of this?
Yes. However it seems to me this principle seems to operate in almost any arcane 'knowledge' area, whether it's Platonists, Scientologists or QAnon.
Is there just one example of good evidence amongst the thousands of claims and tall tales that the UFO brigade have generated? I notice you haven't gone down the Bob Lazar rabbit hole as yet. :wink:
Child's play!
It's more telling those tall tales under oath to a major government authority. What's the point in:
a) Allowing the hearings
b) Lying under oath
Are there even consequences? It's not matter of free speech when it is under oath, no? Is perjury under the legislative branch seen as different than perjury in the judicial branch? In other words, what incentive is there to lie to a Congressional hearing under oath, if in theory, there are consequences if caught lying? Why be a "whistleblower" when there is nothing to blow a whistle on? Are they just schizophrenic? Another psychological disorder? Grandiose narcissism? Bob Lazar didn't actually go through with a Congressional hearing, nor was he the head of an intelligence program in the Pentagon. He's a dude who is interviewed by other UFO aficionados.
Here is Elizando in his own channel:
Daily Show interview (before hearing)
From hearing:
More from hearing